The controversy over how Indian Australians vote has intensified, with pollsters, economists and neighborhood voices contesting the figures that set off probably the most divisive weeks in federal politics.

Roy Morgan’s survey suggests Indian-born Australians are extra evenly cut up between the 2 main events than latest commentary has implied. Carried out as a part of its steady Single Supply survey between July 2023 and June 2025 (pattern measurement 1,332), the outcomes present 45 per cent assist Labor whereas 39 per cent again the Coalition, with smaller shares for the Greens (8 per cent), One Nation (2 per cent) and others (6 per cent). The breakdown by age reveals Labor holding a lead throughout each bracket, however with the Coalition strongest amongst older voters — capturing 44 per cent within the 50+ group in comparison with 42 per cent for Labor. Varied commentators have begun circulating these figures, presenting them as a counterpoint to Kos Samaras’s 85 per cent estimate of Indian-Australian assist for Labor.

Indian Hyperlink, a neighborhood publication, which has run election surveys throughout three cycles, experiences comparable tendencies. Its 2025 pre-poll reveals Labor on 43 per cent, the Coalition all the way down to 27 per cent, Greens at 12 per cent, and Independents rising to 7 per cent. That shift contrasts with 2019, when the Coalition and Labor had been close to parity. Indian Hyperlink described its findings as “correct snapshots” which have mirrored nationwide outcomes.

Craig Emerson, a former federal minister and now an financial analyst, argued that the claims of an 85 per cent bloc vote for Labor didn’t stand as much as scrutiny. “Morgan ballot suggests Indian voters cut up 45:39 Labor vs Liberal. However Senator Worth says it’s 85:15. Who’s the higher pollster? Those that vilify Indian immigrants say Senator Worth is aware of finest. Handy, hey?” he wrote.

Kos Samaras, whose remarks on a podcast had been cited in the beginning of the row, has since clarified that his figures had been based mostly on analysis highlighting broader voting patterns throughout closely migrant electorates. He pointed to information exhibiting 9 of the ten federal electorates with the biggest Indian populations are held safely by Labor, with margins exceeding 60 per cent in seats reminiscent of Chifley, Greenway and Gellibrand. “Any suggestion that almost all of Indian Australians who reside within the above electorates are in some way marginal seat voters who don’t break heavy for Labor is an attention-grabbing information remark,” he mentioned.

The episode underlines the load of the Indian vote in suburban electorates throughout Sydney and Melbourne, the place the neighborhood has grown quickly previously decade. It additionally highlights the sensitivity round migration and illustration, particularly in a local weather the place housing shortages and rising prices are fuelling sharper political debate.

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